Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 13.640730 15.581672 17.662627 20.055171 22.725351 25.608997 28.954021
2025-09-28 10.246214 12.781817 15.707307 19.314341 23.622893 28.584270 34.708341
2025-10-05 9.014588 11.889177 15.361611 19.831218 25.394226 32.049842 40.570554
2025-10-12 8.013262 11.115539 15.021068 20.244135 26.984078 35.320212 46.332766
2025-10-19 7.030622 10.206913 14.356471 20.097356 27.744166 37.479066 50.692210
2025-10-26 6.207371 9.404043 13.726508 19.896330 28.355649 39.409910 54.782677
2025-11-02 5.596886 8.818917 13.315329 19.918137 29.210046 41.639063 59.300337
2025-11-09 5.121334 8.371737 13.042879 20.084247 30.232554 44.098318 64.188864
2025-11-16 4.644211 7.869767 12.639530 20.013663 30.887394 46.047698 68.423057
2025-11-23 4.200207 7.371953 12.194210 19.833601 31.348004 47.713520 72.293526
2025-11-30 3.885701 7.046524 11.977249 19.965530 32.249001 50.015221 77.123459
2025-12-07 3.698792 6.909766 12.036490 20.511301 33.777800 53.265981 83.419740
2025-12-14 3.357602 6.488661 11.621517 20.301561 34.164411 54.884466 87.445562
2025-12-21 2.921282 5.860454 10.820255 19.417822 33.449841 54.817101 88.957455
2025-12-28 2.797530 5.775327 10.912490 19.986082 35.038784 58.282480 95.883895
2026-01-04 2.654293 5.640138 10.906551 20.384075 36.363693 61.381319 102.348923
2026-01-11 2.437387 5.344743 10.597380 20.242670 36.790141 63.080955 106.695325
2026-01-18 2.231903 5.050750 10.266826 20.038173 37.091187 64.578983 110.760065
2026-01-25 2.077350 4.842401 10.074885 20.060899 37.766875 66.689378 115.849285
2026-02-01 1.954911 4.687405 9.969286 20.227765 38.689176 69.222738 121.685948
2026-02-08 1.812890 4.477244 9.742721 20.156841 39.187945 71.068241 126.456283
2026-02-15 1.670229 4.251114 9.467556 19.975621 39.476419 72.563430 130.687005
2026-02-22 1.574062 4.117570 9.364037 20.108385 40.324560 75.018364 136.566638